Why Biden isnt on the New Hampshire primary ballot

Publish date: 2024-08-23

New Hampshire is holding the first-in-the-nation primary elections on Tuesday, for both Democrats and Republicans. But the Democratic primary won’t have President Biden on the ballot. Voters will see the names of his 21 primary challengers instead — and space to write in a name.

But even if one of his primary challengers wins in New Hampshire, it won’t change the electoral outcome of the Democratic nomination process. Barring a catastrophe, Biden will likely be Democrats’ nominee. Here’s what’s going on with New Hampshire.

Democrats kicked New Hampshire out of the first spot for 2024

The parties set their own primary calendars, but for decades Republicans and Democrats have followed roughly the same schedule: Iowa holds the first caucus, then New Hampshire holds the first primary. Republicans are still doing that this year.

But Democrats dramatically changed up their primary schedule for 2024. The party chose South Carolina, where there are far more Black voters than in mostly-White Iowa or New Hampshire. New Hampshire was supposed to go second alongside Nevada, then Michigan. Iowa was pushed way forward to March.

Democratic officials emphasize the party still sees value in New Hampshire being an early voting state. Like Iowa, it’s largely White, but it epitomizes small-government retail politics, they say.

“This showcases the diversity of the party and the country,” said a Democratic official of the new calendar, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Rural, urban, Midwest, West, South.”

Democrats also point out that New Hampshire doesn’t have a great track record of picking the eventual nominee. Actually, it’s been terrible: Only once in modern history has it picked the eventual nominee, and that was John Kerry, who was from neighboring Massachusetts. (New Hampshire voters argue that it’s less about the result, and more about how they winnow the field.)

But New Hampshire decided to go first anyway

The state is holding a primary anyway on Tuesday, for both Democrats and Republicans. New Hampshire’s election officials note that a decades-old state law requires it to be the first primary in the nation. (Iowa doesn’t count, because it’s a caucus.)

New Hampshire Democrats argued behind the scenes they didn’t care if they got penalized for breaking the rules. It’s a pretty low-stakes primary, given there’s no real question about who will be the nominee.

But that will change in 2028, when there won’t be a Democratic incumbent running. If New Hampshire defies the rules again, candidates may have to choose between complying with the party and the media attention that comes from competing in the first-in-the-nation primary.

Biden sided with the party over New Hampshire

The fight between the Democratic National Committee and New Hampshire over the calendar quickly got contentious. The DNC decided to penalize New Hampshire by taking away its roughly two dozen delegates. The primary there is “meaningless,” the DNC declared this month, adding: "…[P]residential candidates should take all steps possible not to participate.”

New Hampshire responded by accusing Democrats of trying to suppress voter turnout. “Falsely telling New Hampshire voters that a New Hampshire election is ‘meaningless’ violates New Hampshire voter suppression laws,” the state’s attorney general wrote to the DNC in January.

The Biden campaign long ago decided to follow the party’s guidance and not compete there. “While the president wishes to participate in the Primary, he is obligated as a Democratic candidate for President to comply [with party rules],” Biden’s campaign manager told New Hampshire Democrats.

But every other Democratic contender is on the New Hampshire ballot

Beyond New Hampshire, Biden’s 21 primary challengers are hardly a factor, but one of them might win this primary. But the win will be symbolic, since the state has been deprived of its delegates.

The most prominent challengers are Rep. Dean Phillips (Minn.) and author Marianne Williamson. They have been campaigning hard in the state, leaning into the anti-establishment argument against the Democratic Party. “They are working against all of us,” Phillips said on the campaign trail. “They are suppressing the voters of New Hampshire by saying your vote does not matter.”

But there’s a kind-of-unofficial write-in campaign for Biden

If Biden wins the New Hampshire primary, it would be through a write-in campaign being led by grassroots Democrats. The Biden campaign is not involved in this, because he can’t compete in the state. But a group of New Hampshire Democratic Party leaders have launched a campaign to urge voters to write in his name, and it’s possible he could win that way. Still, write-in campaigns are historically difficult, and require a lot of voter education and outreach.

Lyndon B. Johnson actually won New Hampshire that way in 1968. One of the only successful write-in campaigns in modern history came in 2010 in Alaska, when Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) lost her primary but won a write-in campaign to win the general election. She was actively involved in the campaign, unlike Biden is in New Hampshire, and she won, but still only got 39 percent of the vote.

New Hampshire is also an open primary, meaning voters not registered with a party can choose which primary ballot they’d like. It’s actually pretty normal in the state for independents who lean left to vote in the Republican primary to affect that outcome, for example.